Holiday Forecasting Strategies: How to Prepare for Black Friday & Christmas

Black Friday and Christmas are the biggest opportunities of the year for product-selling businesses—but they’re also the most stressful. Many business owners face the same questions every year:

• Will I have enough stock of my bestsellers?
• What if I tie up too much cash in the wrong products?
• How do I keep customers happy if demand spikes unexpectedly?

Forecasting is the answer. It’s not just about predicting sales, it’s about giving your business the clarity and confidence to make smarter decisions when the stakes are highest.

Why Forecasting Matters During Peak Season

Poor forecasting can turn opportunity into chaos. Stockouts, excess inventory, and cash flow pressures can erode both profits and customer trust. The stakes vary depending on what you sell: a beauty brand can’t run out of gift sets during a promotion, a baby goods store risks disappointing parents who need essentials on time, and a sports retailer sitting on excess stock after Christmas will struggle with cash flow as the new season arrives.

The common thread is clear: without reliable forecasting, businesses are guessing and guessing is expensive.

What Forecasting Looks Like in Practice

Consider a baby goods retailer preparing for the holiday rush. Strollers and car seats are big-ticket, but bulky and costly to store in large volumes. Meanwhile, nappies and feeding accessories sell quickly and need constant replenishment. A forecasting tool allows them to plan around both realities, keeping essential items available while avoiding overstocks.

Or imagine a health and beauty brand heading into Black Friday. They’ve planned marketing campaigns around hero products, but they can’t risk promoting items they can’t deliver. Forecasting helps them match stock availability with promotions, ensuring campaigns run smoothly and customers leave happy.

Even a homeware or sporting goods store benefits. Long supplier lead times, seasonal demand, and fluctuating customer interest can create tricky inventory decisions. With forecasting, these businesses can place smarter orders, protect cash flow, and ensure customers find the products they want when they need them.

These examples show the same principle: forecasting is about aligning systems, data, and decisions with real-world business realities.

Choosing the Right Forecasting Tools

Spreadsheets are familiar and flexible, but during peak season they often fall short. They rely on manual entry and can’t easily account for the many variables that shape demand. Modern tools, on the other hand, provide clarity and foresight.

At SMB Consultants, we recommend ForesightAI for Cin7 Core and Cin7 Omni, an integrated AI-powered solution that reduces stockouts, optimises purchasing, and helps growing businesses anticipate demand. Another option is StockTrim, a standalone tool that integrates with Cin7, Lightspeed, Shopify, and more, offering forecasting that scales with your business needs.

Both solutions turn forecasting from reactive guesswork into proactive planning, giving business owners confidence during the busiest time of the year.

Why Data Quality and Inventory Accuracy Matters

Here’s the reality: even the smartest forecasting tool can’t perform without clean, reliable data. Many businesses want to get better at forecasting, but if they don’t trust their numbers, those forecasts won’t hold water. That’s why the first step is often to get the basics right.

A critical warehouse KPI for this is Inventory Accuracy: a measure of how closely recorded inventory matches the actual physical stock.

The formula is simple:

Counted Units ÷ Units on Record × 100

Where:
Counted Units = the physical count of items during a stocktake or cycle count.
Units on Record = the expected number of items in your inventory system.

High accuracy means reliable data for forecasting, helping you avoid stockouts and overordering. Low accuracy, on the other hand, points to unreliable counts and misleading forecasts.

If a business doesn’t trust its numbers, the first step is usually a bit of housekeeping:

• Audit existing stock – through a full stocktake or regular cycle counts.
• Review workflows – including returns, adjustments, and reverse logistics.
• Standardise processes – inconsistent practices across teams often create discrepancies.
• Train staff – ensuring everyone understands the implications of stock movements and accounting.

By tightening up these fundamentals, businesses create a solid foundation for forecasting tools to deliver real value.

Making Forecasting Part of Your Business Rhythm

Forecasting isn’t just a technology upgrade, it’s a shift in how decisions are made. For businesses that haven’t forecasted before, the idea can feel intimidating. Many owners worry they don’t have the knowledge or experience to get it right, and the thought of predicting demand feels overwhelming.

The good news is that modern forecasting tools are designed to take the guesswork out of the process. They provide clear guidance based on your actual sales history, supplier timelines, and seasonal trends; replacing uncertainty with actionable insights.

Instead of reacting to problems, you can plan ahead. The benefits extend well beyond the holiday season. Forecasting helps product-selling businesses make smarter purchasing decisions year-round, protect cash flow by investing in the right stock, strengthen supplier relationships through better ordering, and keep customers happy by consistently meeting demand.

Getting Started

The sooner you embrace forecasting, the sooner you turn uncertainty into control. Many product-selling businesses face the same challenge every year: preparing for the holiday rush without overstocking or running out. The difference lies in preparation. By combining accurate data with the right forecasting tools, you can approach Black Friday and Christmas with confidence, knowing your business is ready.

Take the Next Step

At SMB Consultants, we’ve helped product-selling businesses across multiple industries implement forecasting solutions tailored to their needs. Whether integrating ForesightAI with Cin7 or setting up StockTrim as a standalone solution, we ensure your forecasting is accurate, efficient, and embedded in your daily operations.

If you want to approach this holiday season with clarity, confidence, and control, reach out today. Together, we’ll unlock the full potential of your systems and set your business up for success beyond the holiday rush.

Key takeaways

• Use forecasting to reduce stockouts and protect cash flow during peak season.
• Choose tools that integrate with your systems and scale with your business.
• Inventory Accuracy (Counted Units ÷ Units on Record × 100) is a vital KPI.
• Start by auditing stock, standardising processes, and training staff.
• Embed forecasting into regular decision-making—not just as a one-off project.

Related: Looking for forecasting strategies outside of peak season? Check out our EOFY Forecasting Guide.